msevior ([info]msevior) wrote,
@ 2006-04-08 00:28:00
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Fuel efficient cars.
Rich Burridge quotes a summary of a Consumer Reports article which states that only 2 hybrid electric cars will save you money over 5 years.

This was based on the idea that fuel prices will either remain stable or fall in this time scale. Just to remind people, China, India and other countries in the third world are enjoying economic growth which is leading to substantial increase in private car ownership. The effect is to increase world demand for Oil by about 1-2 million barrels of Oil per day per year. This article shows that even Saudi Arabia will max out the rate at which it can supply Oil at an extra 4 Million Barrels of Oil per day and that it will take them until well into the 2010's before the increased production is ready.

With an extra 2 billion people competing for the world's remaining Oil reserves, the only way gasoline will become cheap is if it surplanted as the transportation fuel of choice.


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Oil sands
(Anonymous)
2006-04-07 03:41 pm UTC (link)
There's more oil in the Alberta Tar Sands than in all of Saudi Arabia. Supply is not a problem.

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Re: Oil sands
(Anonymous)
2006-04-07 04:32 pm UTC (link)
And how much does it cost to extract that oil, vs. from Saudi Arabia? I wonder what effect that will have on the price of gas..

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Re: Oil sands
[info]msevior
2006-04-07 10:38 pm UTC (link)
Yes there are. And there is a similar quanity of heavy Oil in the Orinoco Basin near South America. The problem is getting the stuff out of the ground an refined at a fast enough rate to match the huge increase in demand.

The Article quote Soudi Arabia being maxed out at 15 Million barrels a day. I belive the number for Alberta Oil sands is 5 million barrels a day. I don't know what the number is for the heavy oil production off South America. Both Alberta Tar sands and South American Heavy Oil require huge amounts of Natural gas for the extraction leading to even greater pressure on Natural Gas supplies at a time when Natural Gas demand is also growing at a rate that outstrips supply.

All these require huge Capital investments and take many years to bring to fruition. Aainst this world demand for OIl is continually rising.

Furthermore the pressure to reduce Carbon consumption to mitigate Global Climate Change will continually increase as the evidence for this becomes more widely known and appreciated.

My point is don't expect gasoline prices to fall over the next 5 years.

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(Anonymous)
2006-04-07 05:54 pm UTC (link)
I believe peak-oil as much as the next guy, but it doesn't seem incorrect to me to assume that prices will remain somewhat stable over such a short timescale. In absolute numbers, yes, it's gone up a lot; when you take into account inflation, the real value of money required to purchase a gallon hasn't changed that much -- it was much higher in 1981. That's not to say I care for hybrids. They're an interesting concept (I helped build 2 of them in college), but they're relatively complex, sacrifice space for more energy storage and drive systems (I always feel cramped riding in a friend's Prius), and ... they still burn petroleum. I'll stick with biodiesel. (And no, the tar sands won't significantly help. The problem isn't "no petroleum", and probably will never be. The problem is "excessively expensive to extract".)

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why hybrid
(Anonymous)
2006-04-07 08:54 pm UTC (link)
why is the US so crazy about hybrid cars lately, when there's a proven technology to get consumption down by 30%: DIESEL.

and remember, modern european diesel cars (mercedes cdi with particle filters and bluetec, eg) have nothing to do with what is commonly "known" about diesel cars in america.

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Re: why hybrid
(Anonymous)
2006-04-07 10:35 pm UTC (link)
I believe you just answered your own question.

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My take:
(Anonymous)
2007-12-24 09:01 pm UTC (link)
Here's my take on this:
I bought a Honda Civic Hybrid a year ago. Since then, I have spent about a third of what I used to spend on gas. That, along with the tax credit I got back at the end of last year, has made my hybrid car purchase very worthwhile and economical. It's sad to see that this technology isn't backed a little better by our government. We REALLY need more support and mandates in order to clear up our air. It's OUR future!

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